Climate-driven early warning in Ethiopia’s Somali Region¶
Satellite-derived soil moisture data can play a critical role in understanding how environmental conditions influence human activity, particularly in climate-vulnerable regions. In Ethiopia’s Somali Region, pastoralist communities rely on mobility to sustain livestock, moving across thousands of kilometers of rangeland in search of rainfall, pasture, and water.
Project overview¶
Spire’s Soil Moisture Insights were selected by GIST Research to support a study on climate-driven pastoralist movement and conflict risk. The project is conducted in collaboration with the International Organization for Migration (IOM), funded through the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), and aims to strengthen early-warning systems in one of Africa’s most climate-exposed regions.
Key partners:
Spire Global — provides satellite-based soil moisture data
GIST Research — independent research consultancy managing the study
IOM — UN agency developing the Transhumance Tracking Tool (TTT) to monitor herder movements
Methodology¶
The project combines five years of Spire’s high-resolution soil moisture data with field research and community consultations. Researchers mapped how rainfall and soil conditions influence pastoral mobility, using satellite observations to carry forward traditional knowledge of environmental patterns through data-driven analysis.
Deliverables¶
Partners are developing an interactive early-warning dashboard powered by live soil moisture data, designed to:
Map pastoral routes and seasonal movement patterns
Predict drought risks using soil moisture trends and anomalies
Enable faster, localized decision-making for pastoralist communities
Support conflict prevention through environmental intelligence
Key takeaways¶
Soil moisture strongly influences pastoral mobility and resource availability
Climate variability increases uncertainty in traditional movement patterns
Satellite observations provide consistent, large-scale monitoring capability
Integration with field research enables actionable early-warning systems
Environmental intelligence can support conflict prevention and resilience planning
Products used¶
D-ESSM (500 m) and D-HSSM (100 m) — high-resolution observations
Soil moisture anomalies — drought risk indicators
Originally published as a Spire Global press release on 2 December 2025.